Source: BLS, Establishment Survey, as of Nov. 2, 2009. Source: BEA, as of 2009 Q3. Source: BEA, as of September 2009. Source: BLS, as of October 2009. Source: BLS, as of October 2009. The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.5% annual rate in the third quarter, ending a string of four straight quarters of negative growth. Although the National Bureau of Economic Research has yet to declare the recession over, there is increasingly compelling evidence that the economy has entered an expansion stage. — John C. Williams » Read more in FedViews • November 2009 Talking about Tomorrow’s Monetary Policy Today • FRBSF Economic Letter 2009-35 As part of their efforts to promote economic recovery, some central banks have announced they will not raise policy rates for specified time periods. Other central banks have not been as explicit, though they have provided guidance. A comparison of the effects of the Bank of Canada's conditional promise to hold rates steady through the second quarter of 2010 with the Federal Reserve's less explicit guidance finds no evidence that market participants make distinctions between these statements. Chehal • Trehan • November 9, 2009 District Trends Beige Book • October 21, 2009 Economic activity appeared to pick up slightly, with reports pointing to additional signs of stabilization or improvement in some sectors. » Summary • 12th District • Full report 12L Economic Trends • September 2009 ETC: Economic Trends & Conditions • November 2009 BS&R's 12th District Banking Profile • Q2 2009 |
Recent FRBSF research on the crisis
For a complete list, please visit: Crisis & Response New in Research In the News The Madness of the Inflation Hawks • taken from NYTimes.com Blog • The Conscience of a Liberal • by Paul Krugman • November 16 This really can't be overemphasized. I like to use Glenn Rudebusch's estimate of the Taylor Rule – a rule relating interest rates to unemployment and inflation – that appears to track past Fed behavior. » Read more in The Fed's Monetary Policy Response to the Current Crisis
Bill Would Change Process for Picking Fed District Bank Boards • taken from Wsj.com • by Jon Hilsenrath and Damian Paletta • November 10 San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said Tuesday that, though she believes the Fed should play an increasingly central role in monitoring systemic risk, regional banks shouldn't face a diminution of their roles. "I think we have something very valuable with the Federal Reserve system and the way it works," she said. "Congress set it up to center power not 100% with Washington [but to give] people based in other parts of the country eyes and ears and [to enable them to] have some say over monetary policy. That has served our country very well." » Read more in The Outlook for the Economy and Real Estate
U.S., Europe Differ in Approach to Getting Back on Growth Track • taken from the Wall Street Journal • by Brian Blackstone • November 9 A pair of San Francisco Fed economists recently concluded that "there is no evidence that the pace of efficiency gains has slowed" in the U.S. To the extent those gains have been maintained during the crisis, "growth accounting offers little evidence that potential output itself has fallen," John Fernald and Kyle Matoba wrote. » Read more in Growth Accounting, Potential Output, and the Current Recession
“Risk Aversion, the Labor Margin, and Asset Pricing in DSGE Models” • Working paper 2009-26 In dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, the household's labor margin as well as consumption margin affects Arrow-Pratt risk aversion. This paper derives simple, closed-form expressions for risk aversion that take into account the household's labor margin. Ignoring the labor margin can lead to wildly inaccurate measures of the household's true attitudes toward risk. Swanson • October 2009 Upcoming Seminars Brown Bag (International) Finance Seminar Brown Bag (Finance) Macro Seminar Job Market Seminar (Finance) Finance Seminar Upcoming Conferences The U.S. and World Economic Geography Before and After the Downturn (CSIP Symposium) Research Centers |