– Current Unpublished Working Papers
Do Central Bank Liquidity Facilities Affect Interbank Lending Rates?
2009-13 :: With Lopez and Rudebusch :: June 2009
+ abstract In response to the global financial crisis that started in August 2007, central banks provided extraordinary amounts of liquidity to the financial system. To investigate the effect of central bank liquidity facilities on term interbank lending rates, we estimate a six-factor
arbitrage-free model of U.S. Treasury yields, financial corporate bond yields, and term interbank rates. This model can account for fluctuations in the term structure of credit risk and liquidity risk. A significant shift in model estimates after the announcement of
the liquidity facilities suggests that these central bank actions did help lower the liquidity premium in term interbank rates.
Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields
2008-34 :: With Lopez and Rudebusch :: December 2008
+ abstract Differences between yields on comparable-maturity U.S. Treasury nominal and real debt, the so-called breakeven inflation (BEI) rates, are widely used indicators of inflation expectations. However, better measures of inflation expectations could be obtained by subtracting inflation risk premiums from the BEI rates. We provide such decompositions using an estimated affine arbitrage-free model of the term structure that captures the pricing of both nominal and real Treasury securities. Our empirical results suggest that long-term inflation expectations have been well anchored over the past few years, and inflation risk premiums, although volatile, have been close to zero on average.
The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models
2007-20 :: With Diebold and Rudebusch :: September 2007
+ abstract We derive the class of arbitrage-free affine dynamic term structure models that approximate the widely-used Nelson-Siegel yield-curve specification. Our theoretical analysis relates this new class of models to the canonical representation of the three-factor arbitrage-free affine model. Our empirical analysis shows that imposing the Nelson-Siegel structure on
this canonical representation greatly improves its empirical tractability; furthermore, we find that improvements in predictive performance are achieved from the imposition of absence of arbitrage.
– Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes)
An Arbitrage-Free Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model
Forthcoming in The Econometrics Journal :: With Diebold and Rudebusch
+ abstract The Svensson generalization of the popular Nelson-Siegel term structure model is widely used by practitioners and central banks. Unfortunately, like the original Nelson-Siegel specification, this generalization, in its dynamic form, does not enforce arbitrage-free consistency over time. Indeed, we show that the factor loadings of the Svensson generalization cannot be obtained in a standard finance arbitrage-free affine term structure representation. Therefore, we introduce a closely related generalized Nelson-Siegel model on which the no-arbitrage condition can be imposed. We estimate this new arbitrage-free generalized Nelson-Siegel model and demonstrate its tractability and good in-sample fit.
Confidence Sets for Continuous-Time Rating Transition Probabilities
Journal of Banking and Finance 28, August 2004, 2575-2602 :: With Lando and Hansen
+ abstract This paper addresses the estimation of default probabilities and associated confidence sets with special focus on rare events. Research on rating transition data has documented a tendency for recently downgraded issuers to be at an increased risk of experiencing further downgrades
compared to issuers that have held the same rating for a longer period of time. To capture this non-Markov effect we introduce a continuous-time hidden Markov chain model in which downgrades firms enter into a hidden, "excited" state. Using data from Moody's we estimate the parameters of the model, and conclude that both default probabilities and confidence sets are strongly influenced by the introduction of hidden excited states.
– FRBSF Publications
– Other Works
Default and Recovery Risk Modeling and Estimation
Ph.D. Dissertation, Copenhagen Business School, February 2007
Joint Estimation of Default and Recovery Risk: A Simulation Study
Presentation, 16th Annual Derivative Securities & Risk Measurement Conference, FDIC Center for Financial Research and Cornell University, April 2006
Recovery Risk Modeling: An Application of the Quadratic Class
Presentation, International Conference on Finance, University of Copenhagen, September 2005
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