The Adjustment of Global External Balances: Does Partial Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Trade Prices Matter?
Forthcoming in Journal of International Economics :: With Gust and Sheets
+ abstract This paper assesses whether partial exchange rate pass-through to trade prices has important implications for the prospective adjustment of global external imbalances. To address this question, we develop and estimate an open-economy DGE model in which pass-through is incomplete due to the presence of local currency pricing, distribution services, and a variable demand elasticity that leads to fluctuations in optimal markups. We find that the overall magnitude of trade adjustment is similar in a low and high pass-through world with more adjustment in a low pass-through world occurring through a larger response of the exchange rate and terms of trade rather than real trade flows.
High Exchange-Rate Volatility and Low Pass-Through
Forthcoming in Journal of Monetary Economics :: With Corsetti and Dedola
+ abstract Two specifications of an open-economy model are shown to generate high exchange-rate volatility and low exchange-rate pass-through (ERPT). In the model, price discrimination causes ERPT to be incomplete in both the short and the long run. In the short run, a small amount of nominal rigidities is enough to reduce ERPT sharply; still, exchange-rate depreciation worsens the terms of trade, consistent with the evidence. Possible biases from omitted variables and measurement error in the ERPT empirical literature (due to data limitations) are investigated using model-generated time series. Estimates of ERPT coefficients can be quite different from true parameters and are sensitive to the shocks driving the economies. Estimates can nonetheless detect key structural features of the models.
Optimal Monetary Policy and the Sources of Local-Currency Price Stability
Forthcoming in International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, ed. by J. Gali and M. Gertler. Chicago: University of Chicago Press :: With Corsetti and Dedola
Productivity, External Balance and Exchange Rates: Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism Among G7 Countries
In NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006 :: Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2008. 117-194 :: With Corsetti and Dedola
+ abstract This paper investigates the international transmission of productivity shocks in a sample of five G7 countries. For each country, using long-run restrictions, we identify shocks that increase permanently domestic labor productivity in manufacturing (our measure of tradables) relative to an aggregate of other industrial countries including the rest of the G7. We find that, consistent with standard theory, these shocks raise relative consumption, deteriorate net exports, and raise the relative price of nontradables--in full accord with the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis. Moreover, the deterioration of the external account is fairly persistent, especially for the US. The response of the real exchange rate and (our proxy for) the terms of trade differs across countries: while both relative prices depreciate in Italy and the UK (smaller and more open economies), they appreciate in the US and Japan (the largest and least open economies in our sample); results are however inconclusive for Germany. These findings question a common view in the literature, that a country's terms of trade fall when its output grows, thus providing a mechanism to contain differences in national wealth when productivity levels do not converge. They enhance our understanding of important episodes such as the strong real appreciation of the dollar as the US productivity growth accelerated in the second half of the 1990s. They also provide an empirical contribution to the current debate on the adjustment of the US current account position. Contrary to widespread presumptions, productivity growth in the US tradable sector does not necessarily improve the US trade deficit, nor deteriorate the US terms of trade, at least in the short and medium run.
International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks
Review of Economic Studies 75(2), April 2008, 443-473 :: With Corsetti and Dedola
+ abstract This paper shows that standard international business cycle models can be reconciled with the empirical evidence on the lack of consumption risk sharing. First, we show analytically that with incomplete asset markets productivity disturbances can have large uninsurable effects on wealth, depending on the value of the trade elasticity and shock persistence. Second, we investigate these findings quantitatively in a model calibrated to the U.S. economy. With the low trade elasticity estimated via a method of moments procedure, the consumption risk of productivity shocks is magnified by high terms of trade and real exchange rate (RER) volatility. Strong wealth effects in response to shocks raise the demand for domestic goods above supply, crowding out external demand and appreciating the terms of trade and the RER. Building upon the literature on incomplete markets, we then show that similar results are obtained when productivity shocks are nearly permanent, provided the trade elasticity is set equal to the high values consistent with micro-estimates. Under both approaches the model accounts for the low and negative correlation between the RER and relative (domestic to foreign) consumption in the data--the "Backus–Smith puzzle."
Monetary Policy, Oil Shocks, and TFP: Accounting for the Decline in U.S. Volatility
Review of Economic Dynamics 10(4), October 2007, 595-614 :: With Sill
+ abstract An equilibrium model is used to assess the quantitative importance of monetary policy for the post-1984 decline in US inflation and output volatility. The principal finding is that monetary policy played a substantial role in reducing inflation volatility, but a small role in reducing real output volatility. The model attributes much of the decline in real output volatility to smaller TFP shocks. We also investigate the pattern of output and inflation volatility under an optimal monetary policy counterfactual. We find that real output volatility would have been somewhat lower, and inflation volatility substantially lower, had monetary policy been set optimally.
Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the Inflation of the 1970s: Evidence From the Livingston Survey
Journal of Monetary Economics 54(2), March 2007, 433-459 :: With Sill and Stark
+ abstract Using survey data on expectations, we examine whether the response of monetary policy to sudden movements in expected inflation contributed to the persistent high inflation of the 1970s. The evidence suggests that, prior to 1979, the Fed accommodated temporary shocks to expected inflation, which then led to persistent increases in actual inflation. We do not find this behavior in the post-1979 data. Among commonly cited factors, oil and fiscal shocks do not appear to have triggered an increase in expected inflation that eventually resulted in higher actual inflation.
An Assessment of the Disorderly Adjustment Hypothesis for Industrial Economies
International Finance 9(1), Spring 2006, 37-61 :: With Croke and Kamin
+ abstract Much has been written about prospects for US current account adjustment, including the possibility of what is sometimes referred to as a 'disorderly correction': a sharp fall in the exchange rate that boosts interest rates, depresses stock prices and weakens economic activity. This paper assesses some of the empirical evidence bearing on the plausibility of the disorderly adjustment scenario, drawing on the experience of previous current account adjustments in industrial economies. We examined the paths of key economic performance indicators before, during and after the onset of adjustment, building on the analysis of Freund (2000).
We found little evidence among past adjustment episodes of the features highlighted by the disorderly adjustment hypothesis. Although some episodes in our sample experienced significant shortfalls in GDP growth after the onset of adjustment, these shortfalls were not associated with significant and sustained depreciations of real exchange rates, increases in real interest rates or declines in real stock prices. By contrast, it was among the episodes where GDP growth picked up during adjustment that the most substantial depreciations of real exchange rates occurred. These findings do not preclude the possibility that future current account adjustments could be disruptive, but they weaken the historical basis for predicting such an outcome.
A Quantitative Analysis of Oil-Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, and Economic Downturns
Journal of Monetary Economics 51(4), May 2004, 781-808 :: With Sill
+ abstract Are the recessionary consequences of oil-price shocks due to oil-price shocks themselves or to the monetary policy that responds to them? We investigate this question in a calibrated general equilibrium model in which oil use is tied to capital utilization. The response to an oil-price shock is examined under a variety of monetary policy specifications. Under our benchmark calibration, which approximates the Federal Reserve's behavior since 1979, monetary policy contributes about 40 percent to the drop in output following a rise in oil prices. Moreover, none of the commonly proposed policies we examine completely offsets the recessionary consequences of oil shocks.
A Quantitative Analysis of Currency Regimes
In Exchange-Rate Dynamics, ed. by J.O. Hairault :: Oxford: Routledge, 2004 :: With Dedola
Incomplete Markets, Borrowing Constraints, and the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium
Journal of International Money and Finance 21(7), December 2002, 957-980
+ abstract This paper solves a model consisting of two monetary economies with incomplete markets, in which agents are subject to borrowing constraints. The paper investigates if such a framework is able to account for the volatility and the size of the foreign exchange risk premium. The model succeeds in increasing substantially the volatility of the risk premium to about 30% of that in the data. However, this more volatile risk premium does not translate into sufficiently large predictable excess returns. It thus appears unlikely that excess returns from currency speculation can be uniquely explained by a time-varying risk premium in an incomplete-markets economy with exogenous borrowing constraints.
Why Is the Business-Cycle Behavior of Fundamentals Alike Across Exchange-Rate Regimes?
International Journal of Finance and Economics 6(4) , October 2001, 401-419 :: With Dedola
+ abstract Since the adoption of flexible exchange rates, real exchange rates have been much more volatile than they were under Bretton Woods. However, the volatilities of most other macroeconomic variables have remained approximately unchanged. This poses a puzzle for standard international business cycle models. This paper develops a two-country, two-sector model with nominal rigidities featuring deviations from the law of one price due to firms setting prices in buyers' currencies. By partially insulating goods markets across countries and thus mitigating the international expenditure-switching effect, this pricing behavior is found to considerably dampen the responses of quantities to shocks hitting the economies therefore helping to account for the puzzle.